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January 19, 2005

(Two) NFL Stats I Want To See

And which I might calculate myself if I was so moved (and found myself with a lot of free time)

Somewhere in the babbleplex of last weekend's NFL talking-head analyses, I heard some commentator state that the Indianapolis Colts need to focus more on defense in the coming year because "70 percent of their cap money is devoted to offense." Hmmmm. This is very interesting. Hadn't heard someone drop a number like that before. And it set my wheels a-turnin'. Where did he get this data? Could I get this data too?

And that's when I realized I now had two (2) NFL statistics that I really really wanted to see:

(1) Pig-pile fumble recoveries: before getting to the salary cap thing, I really want someone to break out a season or two's worth of film and tell me what percentage of loose balls and fumbles that are consumed by the pig pile (I dunno if that's the official term, but it seems to be what Madden calls it when there's a fumble and a bunch of dudes pounce on the ball, requiring four officials and a solid three to four minutes worth of sorting out and peeling off before we know who has possession of the ball) are recovered by the defense. That is, I want to know how often the defense recovers the ball at the bottom of the pile, because it seems like they end up with it a solid 75 percent of the time. (And I only say 75 percent because I can't remember the last time the offense ended up with the ball and want to play it relatively safe in my estimation.) My hypothesis is that when the ball is at the bottom of the pig pile, it's a free ball -- whoever had it at the beginning is unlikely to have it at the end, because there's going to be a fight, and the fight doesn't have any rules (we hear rumors of eye-gouging and testicle-twisting). Therefore, in a fight with no rules, the more desperate side will likely win. A lost fumble is a crushing blow for an offense -- and the mere sight of the loose ball has to trigger feelings of defeat and loss. It also must subconsciously create scenarios of blame and finger-pointing: why did that pretty-boy QB/ RB/ WR/ TE fumble the damn ball? After all our hard work? For the defense, however, a recovered fumble is a triumph; it's one of the biggest plays the defense can make, and is lauded as such. More importantly, all eleven defenders are in on the play -- they're ALL excited to get the ball, and will all go after it like crazed lunatics. Thus, I would argue that since the defense is much more interested in recovering the fumble than the offense, it is very likely that they recover the fumble in the pig pile an overwhelming percentage of the time. Or, in sportscaster cliche, the defense "just wants it more." Now I just need some data to test it.

(2) Salary Cap Versus Performance by Position and Unit: admittedly inspired and emboldened by the baseball sabermetrics stuff, I would really like to see salary cap numbers by position and side of the ball for each team, and try to measure efficiency versus dollars spent. That is, as an NFL GM, you have a finite number of dollars to allocate each year. How you choose to allocate them is up to you, but you need to address your offense, your defense, and your special teams. Drilling down one more level, you then have to allocate by position; roughly speaking, this means QBs, RB-WRs, and line on offense, D-line, linebackers, and secondary on defense, and returners, general special teamers, and kicking specialists on special teams. With those numbers, you should then be able to compare each team's salary cap allocation to selected Key Performance Indicators (KPIs for the MBA geeks in attendance) for each unit: yards gained, yards surrendered, points scored, points given up, passing versus rushing, etc etc, and arrive at some general conclusions about (a) which teams spend their dollars most efficiently by position and by unit, and (b) which allocation strategy will produce the best results (that is, the most wins). I'm led to believe that something close to this analysis exists here at Two-Minute Warning, but I haven't been able to find it. I'll post a link to anything I do find.

Anyhoo, I'll stop now, with the caveat that for all my blather about the stats and whatnot, my favorite part of the game is really just the sanitized violence of it all. There. I said it. Read into that as you will.

Posted by thatkid at January 19, 2005 11:37 AM under Sports

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