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February 6, 2005

Official Season Finale Episode Preview!

In which I reveal the most important elements of today's television program; I also think the Eagles will win

So the season finale episode of the NFL television program is upon us! Unlike the season finale episodes of the past 24 years, this year my favorite characters and team are prominently involved -- quite a thrill! Oh, they've been close to appearing on this show the past couple years, but they haven't made it all the way to the final elimination challenge. Now they have. And now it's time for their movie script ending.

I've been running my mouth about the Eagles for, oh, most of my life. Only now, living in another city, has supporting the Eagles become an element of my social identity -- one which I've come to savor. In Philly, everyone wants the Eagles to win. Duh. Even the ones that aren't that into it can at least appreciate that most people in the city are much happier if the Eagles score more than the other team on Sunday.

Living in New York among people from all over the US (and the world) makes supporting the Eagles an important point of pride. I like walking around on Sunday in my #5 shirt; I like exchanging smiles with pedestrians who appear to be sporting the same flavor of officially licensed NFL products as I; I like running into Eagles fans on the Upper West Side on their way to the Linc on a Sunday morning; I like repruhzenting Eagles fans everywhere in the Big City: vulgar second-rate losers whose team will never win anything. I really enjoy being an Eagles fan, and I'm sorry the season will have to end today. Will it have a happy ending? Here's how I see it all shaking out:

Gameday Rituals: gameday preparation on a normal Sunday principally consists of securing (a) the proper attire and (b) venue. That is, I lay out my black t-shirt, white #5 Eagles jersey and comfortable jeans. Check. Then I plan for the home or away game -- in the living room or at the bar. The Thuper Bowl demands a much grander scale of planning, especially when one is hosting a little get-together. Check. I also think it's important to drink coffee out of my Eagles mug (the silver one, not the ceramic one and not the official commemorative one from the Fourth-and-26 game) on game days. N.B.: there have been discussions regarding a Thuper Bowl-inspired trip to Mass. I'm not going there. I just think it would be disrespectful to ask God for the Eagles to win the Thuper Bowl; God has more important concerns. Like making sure TO's ankle is healed.

Location Remorse: it wasn't supposed to be like this. I thought if the Birds got the Thuper Bowl I'd be there, no questions asked. Then grad school came along, and an attendant inability to justify the $2500 ticket price (that's before flights, hotels, meals, rental car, etc). So. Then I was going to go to Philly for the game, in a sort of "if the city burns I'd like to be there to see it" sort of way. But then dental surgery happened. So I'm here in New York for the game. Luckily, I'll be with some serious Birds fans, so it's all good. Still, I'll be jealous when Philly burns and I don't get to see it.

Happy To Be Here?: ugh. Past TO's ankle and the "debate" over Bill Belichick's "brilliance" the discussion of how the Eagles just seem "happy to be here" is far and away my least favorite piece of pre-game journo-fodder. Bill Simmons and the extended cast of cnnsi.com, I'm looking in your direction. This opinion seems to be born of certain Eagles having a sense of humor at media day. Hmmm. So I pay attention to a LOT of Eagles coverage. The deal with the Eagles the past couple years at the NFC Championship has been that they've been tight in preparations, and then have come out tight when the games began. This year was different; the team made a point of demonstrating just how loose they were in the week leading up to the NFC title game. They came out loose in that game, and they won. Thus, the light moods at the Super Bowl are more about staying loose and not about "being happy to be there." Sometimes "professional" sports journalists don't pay as much attention to the details as they should. (Also, they're "sports" journalists, but more on that later.)

*****Just made the trip to the supermarket. Spent a lot, but at the same time, a lot less than $2500. We gots enough frozen junk food to open a Ruby Tuesday. I journeyed to said supermarket in my Eagles outfit. Some clerk at the store asked me who I was rooting for, nonironically. It took all of my earthly powers not to pull a Marvin-from-Midnight Run on him and reply with "Who the f*ck do you think?" I gave him a "Go Birds" instead. And they say Philly fans are boorish louts!*****

People I Hope Get Tickets: how sweet would it be if there was a special Eagles-fan-only telecast of the game, complete with Merril Reese audio feed and Philly-related shots of famous faces in the crowd? Instead of showing me the commissioner and some movie stars, I would love to get shots of Randall, Buddy Ryan and Wes Hopkins. Speaking of, do you think any or all of those folks will be at the game? Do you think Prince Jeffrey hooks them up? I wonder. I hope they're all there. They deserve it. Especially Buddy. DREAM SEQUENCE: Brian Dawkins blitzes off the right edge, Brady doesn't see him, and Dawk just levels him. Fumble. Kearse recovers and bounds in for a touchdown. Cut to shot of a smiling Buddy Ryan.

The Wisdom of Crowds: YIKES! The line I saw yesterday was 7.5 points! Perhaps! That's a lot of points. Regardless of how the game pans out versus the spread, a 7.5-point is a pretty compelling indicator of a Pats victory. As someone who's pretty convinced of the virtues of collective wisdom, that line is tough for me to ignore. Despite everything I know about the power of groups and markets to make accurate decisions/ predictions/ assessments, here's why I think the line is wrong: fundamentally, the Super Bowl is an overbet game, the bettors are too obsessed with misleading past results. That is, the market forgets that this Patriots team ISN'T invincible. Were it not for a boner kickoff (how can you kick it out of bounds, John Casay? HOW???), last year's game might have gone differently. The Patriots are great, but they're not perfect (though this team is as good as last year's, and is in some respects better). The Philly brand is haunted by the three NFC Championship losses, despite the fact that this team is freakin DYNO-MITE against the spread over the past couple years. That was people are focused on -- the losses, not the team's performance the past couple weeks, and the rest of this season as well. So I think the market is mispricing this game.

*****Did you catch Tina Fey rocking her Philly accent last night on SNL? I had zero opinion of Tina Fey before that; now I might have a new crush. She absolutely NAILED the PhillyGirl thing, from the accent to the word choice to the facial expressions to the hand gestures. Brilliant. And then she was wearing a Birds shirt for the closing credits! Awesome. Just awesome. Tina, you are awwwwright.*****

All Kinds of Time: the thing that gets me really REALLY excited about watching this game is that #5 has A LOT to prove. A LOT. In the same way that folks seem to be focusing on old Eagles losses in examining this game, so too do they seem to be overplaying old/ bad McNabb. This guy has been the franchise for five years now. FIVE YEARS. This team did NOT have players on the offense for a LONG time, and still they won a ton of games -- mostly because of McNabb. This is the year it all came together for him; he just looks completely in control out there, in a way that defies your expectations of him. As much as he's the NFL poster boy (his image is in the NFL logo bumper), he still might not get enough press for just how classy he is. To play in Philly, and endure the press and the fans, to deal with drug-addicted blowhards talking sh*t about him for the color of his skin, and to have to suffer through network blathermonkeys talking about how he isn't a good passer, yadda yadda, and never once break character? Dude. And then to suffer through TO's nonsense this year? AND STILL NEVER BREAK CHARACTER? DUDE. It's very impressive. But I think he's got a lot of anger to work out. And I think he's planning to work it out against the Patriots. Always fear the dude with something to prove (see below).

The KillShot: I hate to bring it up again (and I don't think it will come into play, I don't), but do you realize that the Patriots are one Hollis Thomas personal foul away from Rohan Davey leading their team against the Eagles? (Of course, it works the other way too.) It won't happen though -- at least not on purpose. Both teams are too proud to pull some a stunt like that. But still. Injuries impact games. I wonder who gets hurt today?

No Matter What, This Is The End: regardless of the result, I'll be a little bit sad to have the football season end. Without getting into the shameful details, let's say that I spend, ahem, a lot of my spare leisure time with official NFL content. A LOT. NFL is my favorite entertainment product, hands down. Ugh. I'll miss it -- especially the Eagles press conferences over the web and the various NFL internet information sources. Sigh. Almost time to start prepping for the draft!

Oh Yeah, the Game: I think 7.5 points is too much. Not that I don't think that the Patriots aren't a GREAT team. They're totally sweet. I get that. But 7.5 points implies a solid beating, and the Patriots don't administer solid beatings UNLESS THE OTHER TEAM TURNS THE BALL OVER. The Eagles make a habit of taking good care of the ball, starting with McNabb (the only QB to throw for more than 30 TDs and fewer than 10 INTs). The Eagles are a well-prepared team that doesn't make many mistakes (save for penalties from time to time). I don't think they'll beat themselves. (Though it's worth checking out TMQ's theory about how the Patriots haven't been flagged for offensive holding or defensive pass interference in their past FOUR AFC playoff games. Very interesting.)

Still, you don't win the Super Bowl by not making mistakes. You have to attack and play to win. I think the Eagles will play to win. I think they're hungry. Will it be enough? Here's what I think matters:

Corey Dillon With Something To Prove: I don't care about all this nonsense about the Eagles needing to stop the run, blah blah blah. Of course they need to stop the run. You always need to stop the run. But Corey Dillon is scary for the Eagles because of all the dudes on the Patriots, NO ONE has more to prove than Corey Dillon. No one. There's a chance that he comes out and plays like an absolute lunatic, and works out the frustrations of all those years with the Bengals at the Eagles' expense. And that's frightening, 'cause he's a gifted player. Angry gifted players = scary. Especially when they can keep the ball away from your team for 10 minutes at a time.

McNabb With Even More To Prove: if anyone has more to prove than Dillon, it's #5. As described above, this is a guy who's put up with a LOT of crap. A lot more than Tom Brady has ever put up with (or Peyton Manning, or Chad Pennington, or Mike Vick, or Daunte Culpepper, etc). I think he comes out angry and focused. I think he runs when needs to -- and even when he doesn't need to -- in order to keep those Patriots LBs honest. You roll him around, get him moving, and suddenly the Patriots' "systems" start to collapse. The game, the whole thing, is really about #5. I think he's ready.

Tee Oh: right, so the folks who think that the Patriots corners will be able to rough TO up at the line are completely deluded. Bum wheel or not, Owens goes 6'3", 225, and is completely cut. The guy is insanely strong. Randall Gay is 5'11", 186; Asante Samuel is 5'10", 185. I don't see them pushing even a gimpy TO around. I just don't think TO will run very well. I see him with 4 catches for 45 yards and a TD. He'll make a difference in the game, though he won't have the stats. (TO also has something to prove.)

The Eagles Defense: someone needs to tell me why there isn't more talk about the Eagles defense? Over the second half of the season, this is the best this franchise's defense has played since 1992. They're scheming the right way, the personnel mix is perfect, everyone is healthy, and they're playing with tons of confidence. Also, the EAGLES TACKLE VERY WELL AS A TEAM. This makes a difference. Honestly, I never in my life expected that the Eagles would win the Super Bowl with offense. Never. I always just assumed that if they won, they'd do it with their defense. I think the D has a big game today. I think they overcommit to Corey Dillon, and trust their corners to keep a handle on those smurfy Patriots receivers. And I think they'll get to Brady. I think this is Miami redux for Brady. The Pats will score, but I don't think their offense will dominate. I just don't. This is a hot Eagles defense, and hot defenses can win Super Bowls.

The Score: guess who I'm picking! I dunno. I just have a Jay Trotter-at-the-end-of-Let-It-Ride sort of vibe about the whole thing. I see the Birds winning a semi-close, well-played game. I think the Birds can coax some turnovers out of the Patriots. I think they'll give up some yards to Dillon, and that Brady will have a decent game. But I think McNabb will find another gear in the third quarter and the Birds' D will clamp down. McNabb will be all over the field, as will the pacy Brian Westbrook. I think the Eagles win 27-23. McNabb is your MVP. And he'll cry.

ENJOY THE GAME!

It's worth noting that if the Eagles lose, I'll be forced to eat a lot of my words, on this very site. Luckily, they won't lose. So I'll be fine.

Posted by thatkid at February 6, 2005 3:16 PM under Sports

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